In Depth: Tablets in 2012: what to expect

Tablets in 2012: what to expect

2011 was an amazing year for tablets. Apple's purple patch continued, bookshops such as Amazon and Barnes & Noble demanded a piece of the action and big-name manufacturers ended up in big, big trouble.

HP's TouchPad and RIM's BlackBerry PlayBook were flops, forcing their manufacturers to embark on massive price cuts - RIM will currently swap a PlayBook for a Mars bar and a few shiny beads - while other firms, such as Dell, exited the Android market altogether.

If you thought that little lot was interesting, you ain't seen nothing yet. Here's what to expect from tablets in 2012.

Quad-core tablets

2010's best tablets were single-core, 2011's were dual-core, and in 2012 they'll be quad-core. The first quad-core Tegra 3 tablet, the Transformer Prime, is already in production, while Apple's forthcoming A6 processor is expected to be quad-core too.

There's more to quad-core computing than meaningless "my tablet's got more cores than yours" spec-sheet Top Trumps: quad-core processors deliver significantly smoother everyday performance, much better multitasking and smoother gaming, but they also improve battery life.

That sounds daft - surely the more cores, the more power? - but processors such as Nvidia's Tegra 3 don't run at full pelt all the time and are built with a fifth low-performance core that handles relatively undemanding tasks.

The difference is noticeable: when we put the quad-core Transformer Prime through its paces we found it to be "fast and nimble, pumping new life into apps we've used for the past nine months and speeding up the operating system overall." It was particularly good for full-HD movies.

Windows 8 tablets

Microsoft joins the tablet party with Windows 8 in 2012, but many observers fear it's turning up when all the good beer has been drunk and there's nothing left but Lambrini and Tesco Value prawn cocktail crisps. Windows 8 tablets need to be exceptional if they're going to sell in huge numbers.

There are plenty of reasons to be cheerful. We love the Metro user interface, and massive support from the likes of Dell, Samsung and Nokia means there should be plenty of different models to choose from at a range of price points.

The thought of a Nokia tablet running Windows 8 is particularly exciting. There will be business-focused tablets and consumer-focused ones, and in addition to Intel-powered devices you'll be able to get Windows 8 tablets running low-power ARM processors.

It's not all rosy, though. Microsoft's belief that we need a full-fat operating system instead of a mobile one is a big gamble, and the associated license fees - the cost of a Windows licence is roughly four times the cost of a Windows Phone one - makes it difficult for manufacturers to compete with Apple's prices while still turning a profit (and that's assuming Apple doesn't cut its prices out of sheer badness, which it might well do).

There's also ongoing confusion about whether the ARM version of Windows will support older Windows programs.

ARM SUPPORT: We love Windows 8's Metro interface, but there's some confusion over whether ARM versions will support older apps

Apple iPad 3

The iPad remains the tablet to beat: it accounts for the lion's share of tablet sales, and that's likely to continue through 2012.

We're expecting to see the iPad 3 in early 2012 with a retina display, faster processor and possibly the Siri virtual personal assistant.

Apple is maintaining its usual wall of silence, which means that most iPad 3 feature lists are based on speculation, wish lists and bullshit, but predicting a faster chip, better display and Siri is rather like predicting it'll rain soon in England: there's an excellent chance you'll be right.

Here's one prediction you can take to the bank: by the time the iPad 3 actually ships, the rumour factory will have generated so much nonsense that when it turns out to be a really well-built tablet computer with excellent software, half the internet will moan that it can't make toast, perform liposuction or double as a flying carpet.

TOP TABLET: Apple's iPad remains the tablet to beat. Expect a better display, faster processor and possibly Siri too

Android tablets

If you like Android, 2012 is going to be fun. Android 4.0 Ice Cream Sandwich is tasty, and Android firms are creating some nifty bits of kit: Asus's Eee Pad Transformer Prime is a particular hoot, and more interesting tablets are on the way. Some of them could have Intel inside: Intel and Google are working together to make Android play nice with Intel's processors, which mirrors Microsoft's new-found love of ARM devices.

The danger for Android in 2012 is that its tablets could end up like the worst PCs: barely differentiated products competing on relatively insignificant spec differences, stuffed with crappy additional software by firms operating on razor-thin margins.

We've already seen firms such as Dell exit the Android market after disappointing sales; 2012's likely to have a good number of unsold tablets too.

ANDROID ON THE UP: The Transformer Prime is a hoot, and we're expecting January's CES to show off plenty of other interesting Androids

Android-y tablets

The big news in late 2011 was Android-y tablets - that is, tablets that are based on Android but have gone in a different direction.

Amazon's Kindle Fire and Barnes & Noble's Nook Tablet have been getting mixed reviews, but they're really, really cheap and link in nicely with enormous media libraries.

Rumours suggest that the Kindle Fire was a stopgap product rushed out for the Christmas shopping season, and that Amazon's "proper" Android-based Kindle Fire 2 tablet will appear in 2012.

Android-y tablets are bad news for some Android tablet firms: they come from media companies, not hardware firms, and those firms can afford to take a hit on hardware prices and make it up later on media sales. That makes the bottom end of the tablet market a very difficult place to compete.

TOUGH COMPETITION: Cheap Android-based tablets such as the Kindle Fire will make life difficult for low-end Android tablet manufacturers

Doomed tablets

The two great hopes of 2011 - HP's TouchPad and RIM's BlackBerry PlayBook - aren't looking too clever right now.

The TouchPad is dead and HP is currently trying to decide what to do with its well-liked WebOS operating system; future HP tablets are likely to run Windows 8, but WebOS could end up in the hands of someone such as Amazon.

Meanwhile RIM is suffering: it's just written down nearly half a billion dollars to pay for heavy discounts on the BlackBerry PlayBook after belatedly discovering that people won't pay Apple prices for a half-baked, half-arsed tablet that doesn't even do email properly. A software update's coming in February, but that still doesn't bring services such as BBM to the tablet.

The Guardian estimates that RIM is currently sitting on 1.79 million unsold tablets, and it's hard to argue with the analysis that the PlayBook has "harmed the company enough. Time to let it go and focus on the smartphones, RIM's oldest, and best, business."

NUMBERED DAYS: The BlackBerry PlayBook probably isn't long for this world. It's done enormous damage to its manufacturer RIM